Outlook 2004
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The following prognostications come with all the normal caveats. Obviously, trends can take some unexpected changes in the economy and/or consumer preference.  Here's what I see, barring significant changes in the economy and financing, for 2004:

o  Production/Shipments

Production of new manufactured homes in California facilities should increase by 5% to 7,282 units up from 6,935 units in 2003. Shipments, including shipments into California from neighboring states, should reach 9,032 new homes, up 7% from 8,441 homes in 2003.

 

o  Manufactured Homes as Real Estate

In 2003, 34% (up from 31% in 2003) of the new manufactured homes sold in California were sited in subdivisions, planned unit developments and on scattered urban and rural lots where the land and home are owned and financed as real estate.

As the industry resolves appraisal and financing issues, the real estate trend for manufactured housing will continue and should represent 38 to 40% of new sales in 2004.

 

o  Urban In-fill and Redevelopment

With the introduction of two-story homes and architecturally compatible exterior treatments, coupled with on-site enhancements such as attached garages, porches and decking, manufactured housing has become a viable and cost effective choice for local governments, redevelopment agencies and developers for urban in-fill and redevelopment projects.

As the market niche is developed, bringing affordable housing to inner-city families, real estate sales of manufactures homes could reach 50% of total sales within three years.

o  Features and Trends

In trend-setting California, manufactured homes are available with stucco or wood siding, roofs of tile or composition shingles, and dramatic windows.  Architectural styling include single and two-story, traditional ranch, Cape Cod, southwest and Mediterranean.  Exteriors can be designed to be compatible with any local neighborhood.

As local governments, redevelopment agencies and developers increase their use of manufactured housing for in-fill projects, we expect to see a significant increase in craftsman style and multi-unit manufactured homes with exterior amenities which compliment and enhance the architecture of older neighborhoods.

 

o  Demographics

The profile of those who have purchased manufactured homes in the past decade demonstrates that significant changes are occurring in the characteristics of manufactured homeowners.  Recent purchasers are younger, more affluent, have larger families, have attained a higher level of education and are less likely to be retired than manufactured homeowners as a whole.  Most are siting their homes on private property as opposed to traditional land-lease communities.

We expect the average household size for new manufactured homes to be more in tune with the states average of 2.7 for single-family homes as opposed to the 1.9 persons for the existing manufactured housing stock.